Donald Trump’s impeachment will change the 2024 race, but not in the way you might think.

Former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign continues to gain momentum after New York’s Manhattan DA was charged with falsifying business records seven years ago. The former president added growth, fundraising and better polling. The numbers in the Republican primary.

Maybe that’s what the Democrats want. After all, President Joe Biden appears to be dead set for re-election, even though no president has ever been re-elected with such a low profile as Biden. Many strategists believe his best chance is a rematch with Trump. But our latest polls show that Biden is losing a rematch to Trump on the economy, immigration and crime.

Last December, Trump had a 2024 campaign announcement that lacked energy, barely noticed, and few news outlets even covered the rallies. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been gaining new voters in the Republican primary every month Trump has shut down. Then the full force of the law began to come after Trump and revived his election campaign and political life.

The lawsuit is dividing Americans along party lines. Eighty percent of Democrats support impeachment, 79 percent of Republicans oppose it, and liberals are split 51-49, according to a March Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll. Most Americans, however, believe the impeachment is politically motivated and that Trump will eventually be acquitted.

Jonathan Turley: The Donald Trump lawsuit ignores this basic legal principle

It raises further questions as to how the actual prosecution can be evaluated. In the year He says the payments made in 2017 influenced the 2016 election and failed to disclose any crime committed to make it appear and extend the statute of limitations. Even in New York, this charge is likely to be thrown out in my view, which will further embolden the Trump campaign.

Americans are divided along party lines over how the lawsuit will affect them. Trump’s presidential chances. Sixty-seven percent of Democrats think it will hurt his candidacy and 57 percent of Republicans say it will help, according to a March Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. The actual outcome may depend on how well Trump responds. His speech to his supporters was a laundry list of personal grievances, which he spoke softly but far from calling for electoral action. Majorities of Americans in each party rejected his calls for protest before the impeachment, and he could lose even more moderates if he turns with Jan. 6-style behavior anywhere.

The charges spell trouble for Trump’s front-runner, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Recently, DeSantis has doubled down on traditional conservatism to go after Trump’s base, but with little success. It is better to focus on character and competence rather than traditional battles to strengthen the campaign. won Overwhelming re-election It’s because Florida handled Covid and the recent hurricane so well, not because it took over Disney. He should reboot his campaign and separate himself from Trump, not try to emulate him.

Trump will still be the frontrunner no matter what. Half of Republican voters would vote for Trump in an open GOP primary, and 56 percent would vote for him in a face-off primary with DeSantis. But DeSantis has the charisma and growing image to face a real challenge. DeSantis leads all polls in the Harris poll with 47 percent favorability and has the largest favorable/unfavorable margin of +14 points. Trump has the same favorability at 46 percent, but the unfavorable gap is 1 point in the water, with 47 percent against him. Only 81% of voters have heard of the Florida governor, compared to 94% of voters who know Trump and Biden, giving him an edge. Tim Scott is well-liked by those who know him, but he has a long way to go to establish a national identity.

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Former United States President Donald Trump leaves after giving remarks at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. degree in a process that takes less than an hour. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

But despite Trump’s boost today, the Republican primary is far from over. DeSantis is giving Republicans a high 76% favorability and better choice in early primary states. An early win at a place like New Hampshire changes the dynamics of the race.

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On the Democratic side, the Democratic establishment seems to be rallying around Biden instead of going through a tough primary. The midterm race has given Biden a reason to continue to support him, and the party has shown a stronger measure of cooperation than Republicans. Every time they bank on Biden, they mistakenly believe they can win, counting on a Trump rematch. By pushing the ad until late summer, Biden cooled the field and avoided a lame-duck situation.

Trump’s downfall is real, and the country is on the brink of collapse in 2018. It’s getting closer to a Trump/Biden rematch in 2024. Both candidates have similar baggage with swing voters, but the party base lacks how much better it will do no matter which party nominates. A fresh face with experience serving as president.

Click here to read more from Mark Penn