2023 NCAA Championship Game SDSU vs UConn Betting Preview: Big, sharp bets

Patrick Everson

Fox Sports Betting Analyst

The odds of March Madness The championship game is scheduled for Monday night and is now bleeding into April. They are longtime preseason favorites. Houston – who lost the opportunity to play for the title in his hometown – and AlabamaAlong with all the college basketball blue-bloods.

No Kansas. No Duke. No Kentucky. No UCLA. Heck, no Gonzaga, perennial competitor, as well. But Yukon It’s alive and well, and the Huskies certainly have championship pedigree, with four national titles to their credit.

On the side a San Diego State team, which is miles deeper than ever. NCAA tournament.

Let’s take a look at how bookmakers and bettors have fared in the final four and dive into Monday night’s championship match.

Title game odds

Number 5 San Diego State Compared to number 4 Yukon (9:20 p.m. ET, CBS)

Point Distribution: Yukon -7.5 (UConn is favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise San Diego State will cover)
Money Line: UConn -345 favorite to win (Bet $10 to win a total of $12.90); San Diego State +250 underdog to win (Bet $10 to win a total of $35)
Total Score Over/Under: Both groups scored 132.5 points

Better late than never

It took until the third and final weekend of March Madness — when the calendar flipped to April and on April Fool’s Day, no less — for bettors to finally come up with a winning day to compete with bookmakers. UConn entered the final four red-hot – and that way on Saturday night – for such a result.

In the opening semi-final, San Diego State won by 14 points from the second half Florida Atlantic 72-71 on Lamont Butler‘s buzzer-buzzer jumper. But the Aztecs failed to cover as they were 2.5-point favorites.

However, Connecticut – a spreading cover machine in this tournament – made it all work for the fans. The Huskies passed the No. 5 seed Miami 72-59 as 5.5-point favorites.

“We basically broke even against San Diego State-FAU and then lost to Miami-UConn,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “Our first loss of the tournament was on Saturday. They beat UConn, so we had a little bit of a fight over that.”

UConn is a perfect 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the Big Dance. All five wins were by double digits, Saturday’s margin the smallest yet. And late in the regular season, the Huskies are on an 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS pace.

sharp side

Based on those strong UConn numbers, taking on San Diego State on Monday night doesn’t seem very smart. But that doesn’t necessarily mean jumping on the husky sled.

“It’s hard to keep betting against the Huskies,” college basketball player Andy Molitor said. “Wins are wins this year, but San Diego State has won each of the last two games by one point, while UConn has outscored teams by goal difference, winning by a total of 64 points in 3 of the Sweet 16 games. Lai.”

Of course, the Aztecs fell a little Cretan 57-56 in the Elite Eight, followed by the aforementioned nail-biter against FAU in the Final Four. UConn washed up Arkansas 88-65 in the Sweet 16, then steamrolled Gonzaga 82-54 in the Elite Eight before eliminating Miami.

“A little bit of a theme emerged, as well as Gonzaga and Miami going through long offensive struggles and destroying them both,” Molitor said. “UConn’s defense, especially on the perimeter, will make it a tough team to get back against. If San Diego State did the first half against FAU, this could be a very boring finale to cap off another great contest.”

Linear motion seems to think that might be the case. UConn opened as low as -6/-6.5 on Saturday night at some shops, and literally within minutes, the Huskies were down to -7.5.

“I think the number that steamed up to the Huskies makes sense,” Molitor said. “And while it’s worth it against San Diego State, it’s hard to take it when UConn wins by double digits with a big scoring spread. I’m not happy to bet on the Aztecs or taking them in the second half, either — even if it works against FAU — because of what we’ve seen UConn do with leadership and defense.

“It leads me back to what he’s talking about: under 132.5,” Molitor said, referring to Monday night’s total. “Not yet mentioned: San Diego State’s defensive efficiency numbers. After what the Aztecs have done so far, including the masterclass vs. Alabama, I think this will be the one with a chance to keep them in this one. I’ll be it. We’re looking for long possessions that come up empty on both sides of the floor.”

Worth considering: Before getting hit in the FAU-San Diego State game, the Aztecs were on a 12-0 run since the regular season.

Official at UConn

As of Saturday night, the public/entertainment contenders are already all over the Huskies. And that alone is sure to continue until Monday at 9:20 PM ET.

“We’re already approaching a six-figure loss on the UConn point spread,” Shelton said Sunday night for BetMGM Nevada – the company’s status at its sportsbooks up and down Las Vegas Boulevard. “Ticket odds are 2-1 and money is 7-1 on UConn.”

However, thanks to all the favorites and big names long gone from this tournament, BetMGM Nevada – and many other books in Vegas and nationally – are in good shape in the March Madness Championship odds market.

Even though the Huskies won the game Monday night, Shelton said the book will do well.

“San Diego State is our best case, but both teams are six-figure futures winners,” Shelton said.

I like big bets and I can’t lie.

FAU didn’t get the win on Saturday, blowing a 14-point lead in the last 15 minutes against San Diego State. But as debaters like to say: good teams win, great teams cover. And the Owls, who were 1.5 to 3 points lower in the week, were covered in a 72-71 loss.

This allowed the Caesars Sports client to spend $115,000 on FAU +3 (-115) for a $100,000 profit.

Another Caesars customer had $150,000 on the FAU-San Diego State game at 131.5 over. After a 73-point first half — FAU led 40-33 — the bet is likely to pay off. With four minutes left, Over hit a bucket that put the Owls up 67-65.

In the championship futures market, two big tickets remain alive at Caesars Sports:

$25,000 at UConn +2000 ($500,000 potential profit)
$15,000 at San Diego State +950 ($142,500 potential profit)

Gone, unfortunately, are the incredible December wagers from the Caesars customer in Illinois. The winner had $400 in four games against FAU to win the championship: three $100 games at big odds of +250000 and a fourth $100 game at +50000. The customer would have won $800,000 if the owls had finished their run.

Here’s hoping you can short in some form or fashion to lock in a speculative profit.

For tonight, I’ve got +4500 championship tickets at San Diego State, so you know where my loyalties lie. Enjoy the ultimate March Madness game!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a popular journalist in the national sports betting space. He is based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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