2023 March Madness Odds: National Championship Trends

And then there were two — that’s right, the Men’s NCAA Tournament National Championship is upon us. of San Diego Aztecs I took it down Florida Atlantic Owls While on a game-winning buzzer-beater UConn Huskies They won Miami Hurricanes In double-digits. This will be the first time a Mountain West team has made the title game and the first time for the Huskies since winning it all in 2014. This will also be the first match between the 4-seed and the 5-seed. in the National Championship since the race began in 1979.

This competition has generally been the same for centuries and has produced some of the most amazing results we have seen in its history. For reference, the Aztecs were outscored 80-1 and UConn was 16-1 to win the national championship. If San Diego State wins, it will be the second-longest preseason streak since 1976 by any national champion. Incidentally, UConn entered the tournament 95-1 in 2014.

As always, Fox Sports Research wanted to dig deep into the numbers with the broadcast (ATS) and live (SU) to help make some profitable bets. Let’s jump into the fun and, hopefully, make you a few bucks along the way.

Seven-plus point favorites have not fared well in the national title game.

UConn is a big favorite in this game, currently favored by 7.5 points on FOX Bet. While this highlights how dominant the Huskies are in this contest, the historical data suggests that betting on San Diego State could be worthwhile. Since 1985, there have been seven teams favored by seven-plus points in the national championship. Those teams went an impressive 2-5 ATS (28.6%) and 4-3 SU (57.1%).

Basically, teams in this situation lost nearly half the time and rarely covered the spread. All teams favored by seven plus points in the title game since 1985 are listed below along with their results.

• 2010: Duke Blue Devils (-7), defeated Butler Bulldogs (61-59)
• 2009: North Carolina Tar Heels (-7.5) lost Michigan State Spartans (89-72)
• 2002: Maryland Terrapins (-7.5) lost Indiana Hoosiers (64-52)
• 1999: Duke (-9.5) lost to UConn (77-74)
• 1996: Kentucky Wildcats (-14) lost Syracuse Orange (76-67)
• 1988: Oklahoma Sooners (-8) lost Kansas Jayhawks (83-79)
• In 1985 Georgetown Hoyas (-9) lost Villanova Wildcats (66-64)

Can UConn stay perfect in title games?

The trends above show how UConn could lose on Monday night, but their story is a little different than most. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and SU all-time when playing in the national championship, all of which dates back to the 1999 NCAA Tournament. This is the best record of any team with at least three appearances in the national championship game.

from Louisville Cardinals They are 3-0 in games played and no other team in tournament history has gone at least three games undefeated in the national championship. Here are some highlights that might convince you to bet on the Huskies.

• UConn is 26-11-1 ATS (70.3%) this season, the second-best coverage rate of any team in Division-1 this season (Utah Valley State Wolverines: 25-9 ATS, 73.5%).
• UConn is 15-1 ATS (93.8%) and 16-0 SU against non-conference opponents this season.
• UConn is the sixth team since 1985 to win all five tournament games by double digits; Four of the five went on to become national champions.
• UConn outscored its opponents by 103 points in the tournament, the seventh team ever to enter the national title by a margin of at least 100 points. Five of the previous 6 teams won the championship
• UConn is posting 79.8 PPG in the contest, the fourth highest average of any team in March Madness.
• UConn is 18-0 this season when scoring over 80 points and has done so three times in this contest.
• UConn has made 50 three-pointers in a contest since 2015, becoming one of nine teams to do so in a single contest. They have won four of the last eight championships – including three of the last four tournament winners.
• UConn’s Adam Sanogo He is the fourth player in the tournament to average 20 points per game on 65% shooting and has made the national title game in the last 40 years. He is the first since Corliss Williamson in 1994.

Bet as long as San Diego State is playing

While the Aztecs’ playoff streak ended at Florida Atlantic, the numbers still indicate they’re just under the national championship game. San Diego State has been hit under in 22 of 37 games this year (one push) – a whopping 59.5 percent below par. Brian Nederland’s team went on a 12-game hitting streak before picking up their Final Four victory.

UConn’s over/under is pretty impressive as they hit in 18 of 38 games, or 47.4% of their games, during the 2022-23 campaign. The underdogs have performed well in recent cup games, hitting in 11 of the last 17 national championships (64.7%).

Can the Aztecs break the curse of the West Coast?

San Diego State is not only the first Mountain West team to make the Final Four and the national championship, but also the first team from California to make the title game. UCLA Bruins In the year Here’s a list of the “firsts” the Aztecs tried to accomplish in 2006:

• By winning, they will be the first team from the Pacific or Mountain time zones to win Arizona Wildcats In 1997
• The win was the first team from California to win the title since UCLA in 1995.
• With a win, it becomes the first 5-seed
• With a win, a Mountain West team would become the first to win the title.UNLV Rebels (They were in the Big West Conference in their lone title year.)

Experience matters in the national championship

As previously mentioned, San Diego State will play UConn in its first game in the national championship, taking fifth. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, this will be the 13th championship game in which a team with previous championship game experience will play without a team.

Interestingly, schools that have previously been in the title game are just 7-5 SU (58.3%) in that span. However, the more experienced school has won four straight championships in this state as well as five of the past six championships since the 2000 NCAA Tournament. The only team to lose in 2002 was Indiana – as noted earlier against a Maryland team loaded with 7.5-point underdogs.

So what are you waiting for? Go to FOX Bet and place some bets on the National Championship!